Fed discount rate meeting notes: the two major Federal Reserve seeks to stay put, the most important Federal Reserve transfer pigeon?

The Fed's discount rate meeting notes released Tuesday show,The New York Fed and the Atlanta Fed Board of Governors supported maintaining the discount rate unchanged in JulyFed officials last month agreed unanimously to raise the benchmark federal funds rate to a target range of 5.25% -5.5%, the highest level in 22 years.

The Fed's monetary policy meeting notes released last week highlighted internal divisionsThe discount rate meeting notes make this disagreement even more apparentOfficials remained broadly concerned that inflation would be hard to subside and that further rate rises would be needed, but the consensus was also increasingly fractured, according to meeting notes. The two Fed officials were leaning towards keeping rates on hold or "likely to support such a proposal"

It is worth mentioning that the New York Federal Reserve is the most important body in the implementation of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and the chairperson of the Federal Reserve enjoys permanent voting rights in the FOMC. Regional Federal Reserve presidents do not necessarily support the requirements of the Federal Reserve Board, but their policy views are often in line with this. Previously "Federal Reserve Messenger"Nick Timiraos suggests New York Fed President Williams has dovish tendencies。

due toIndustrial foreign exchangeTraders speculate that the economy will avoid a recession, and they are pushing up long-term bond yields while alsoLower expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates。

The swap market is currently pricing in a rate cut of about 100 basis points next year, down from more than 150 basis points a few weeks ago. Among options tied to the secured overnight funding rate, one trade that has been popular over the past week has been hedging against the risk that rates will remain high next year. Meanwhile, block trading in five-year Treasury futures contracts has been frequent, potentially adding to market volatility in a traditionally illiquid month.

There were also signs of an increase in short positions on five-year cash notes, suggesting a revival in basis trading that seeks to exploit the spread between futures markets and cash markets. But overall, JPMorgan's latest Treasury client survey showed both long and short positions turning neutral ahead of Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell's speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday. Powell's speech could change expectations about the direction of Fed policy.