FXT foreign exchange analysis whether gold has ushered in an inflection point after the rebound

FXTThe foreign exchange pointed out that gold prices rose last week, gaining more than 1.25%, as Friday's non-farm payrolls report showed a rise in unemployment and the ISM manufacturing index showed continued weakness in U.S. industry.

More than two-thirds of retail investors expect gold prices to rise in the shortened trading week to September 8, according to the latest Kitco Newsweek Gold survey. After weeks of caution and disagreement, market analysts are as optimistic as retail investors that they are heading into the Labor Day long weekend.

Last week, 11 Wall Street analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey. Seven analysts (64%) expect gold prices to rise in the coming week, and three analysts (27%) expect gold prices to fall. Only one analyst (9%) has a neutral view on gold in the coming week.

Meanwhile, 534 retail investors participated in the online poll. Of these, 360 respondents (67%) expect gold prices to rise in the coming week. Another 101 (19%) expect gold prices to be lower, and 73 (14%) are neutral in the near term.

The latest survey shows that retail investors expect gold prices to trade around $1962 in the coming week.

Will gold continue to rise in the short term?

Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, believes gold prices will rise in the near term. "The tide seems to be turning towards gold," he said.

He added: "Economic news in the US and elsewhere has been mixed, but most points to a weakening global economy. Markets have priced in expectations of an end to US rate hikes, even as'longer tightening 'continues."

Daniel Pavilonis, a senior commodities broker at RJO Futures, believes that gold prices will peak in the short term.

"I think gold prices will actually continue to be capped below the highs and possibly lower," Mr. Pavilonis said. "The rationale behind that is that some of the data are still relatively strong. You look at the core services sector, the non-housing services sector, in terms of inflation, some labour indicators are still quite strong."

Pavilonis said that the further yields look, the higher they go, "so it's not a short-term problem, it's not a temporary problem."

"I think inflation is starting to be'confirmed 'and that's going to continue for a longer period of time," he said, meaning the Fed is unlikely to cut rates until the end of 2024. "I think that's what's really holding back precious metals markets."

What will happen to gold in the coming week?FXXWe will continue to monitor and analyze.

In the coming week, there will be some important economic data releases, with the ISM services PMI and initial jobless claims being the focus.

Marc Chandler, managing director of Bannockburn Global Forex, expects gold prices to continue last week's performance.

"I expect gold prices to move higher again in the coming week, especially if gold closes above the $1950- $53 area [on Friday], which I think will break the trend line formed by the highs in May and July. This is also a retracement target," he said. "The US jobs data is not going to change perceptions of the US economy and the labour market is becoming less tight. The 2-year Treasury yield is up above 5.0 per cent again."

Chandler said that in the cash market, he believes the next target for gold prices is $1975-85.

Sean Lusk, co-head of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, remains cautious about the short-term outlook for gold, predicting a downward trend next week on the strength of the dollar index and stock markets, as well as mixed messages from the data.

"We passed through some support levels this week, but as things stand, it's still uncertain whether the rally will continue in the coming week," Lusk said.

Mr. Lusk added: "As equities and the dollar move higher, that means gold prices will fall. In my view, the recent turn in gold prices is due to the performance of equities, so if this continues, metal prices could fall further. I'm bullish in the long term, but that doesn't mean gold prices can't move again and test the $1,900 downside again."

Frank McGhee, precious metals trader at Alliance Financial, also believes gold prices will trend lower in the coming week due to concerns about the impact of an economic slowdown and "as the Federal Reserve has not given any hints of an inflection point that it has long desired, instead it has been emphasizing that'interest rates remain high for longer '".

Forexlive.com chief FX analyst Adam Button believes the pivot is underway. "The odds of the Fed raising rates in November are slim, but that will soon be ruled out and the focus will shift to the timing of the first rate cut," Button said. "Gold will shine as the focus shifts."

Jim Wyckoff of Kitco believes an uptrend is starting to take shape for gold. "As the price of gold starts to trend upwards on the daily chart, the price of gold will move steadily higher," he said.