After non-agricultural gold needs to be vigilant against this risk. What is the confidence for crude oil bulls to bet on $100 oil prices?

This week's US non-farm payrolls report and ISM manufacturing data were mixed, indicating that the US economy is both resilient and cooling. The non-farm payrolls slightly exceeded expectations in August, the unemployment rate rose unexpectedly, and wage growth also slowed down, but the number of new non-farm payrolls in June and July was revised down sharply.The complexity of the data increases the difficulty of market interpretationAfter the non-agricultural release, the US dollar index rebounded after a low day and approached a high of more than two months, while gold once turned down and closed up, rising for two consecutive weeks.

Thanks to China's positive PMI, U.S. economic data increasing hopes for a soft landing, and new news from Saudi Arabia and Russia that may restrict supply, WTI crude oil rose for seven consecutive days and rose more than 7% this week.

Next week, a number of important Federal Reserve officials will speak, and the Reserve Bank of Australia and Canada will announce its interest rate decisionEuropean Central BankWe will face the baptism of more economic data.

Central Bank News: Special risk events are approaching, and gold needs to be vigilant against this risk

Federal Reserve: Stability maintenance expectations are on the rise

On Wednesday at 20:30, the 2025 FOMC voting committee and Boston Federal Reserve President Collins delivered a speech on inflation and policymaking; at 21:00, former St. Louis Federal Reserve President Brad delivered a speech;

Thursday at 02:00, the Federal Reserve released the Beige Book of Economic Conditions; at 03:00, the 2023 FOMC voting committee and Dallas Federal Reserve President Logan participated in the community listening meeting; at 22:00, the 2023 FOMC voting committee and Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Harker delivered a speech on the future of financial technology.

Friday 03:30-07:05; FOMC Permanent Voting Committee, New York Fed President Williams, 2024 FOMC Voting Committee, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, 2023 FOMC Voting Committee, Dallas Fed President Logan delivered speeches.

The coming week will feature speeches by several Federal Reserve officials, including Williams, Harker, Bostic, and Collins, followed by a period of silence for policymakers ahead of the September interest rate meeting. Given recent encouraging signs on inflation and labor costs,The Federal Reserve appears set to pause interest rate hikes in September, but strong economic data means further rate hikes are still not entirely ruled out。

Just after the non-farm release on Friday, Cleveland Federal Reserve President Meister said that the labor market is making some progress to improve the balance of supply and demand, but inflation is still too high, the labor market is still strong, and the Federal Reserve will make interest rate hikes based on future data. With the September FOMC meeting (held on September 19-20) still a special risk event, given the current uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's follow-up actions,Be vigilant that traders such as gold and US stocks start to profit and leave the marketAccording to Fxstreet analyst Patricio Martín, looking at the daily chart,The technical outlook for gold is trending towards neutral to bearish。

Other central banks' important agenda: RBA announces interest rate decision

Monday.European Central BankPresident Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech at the Distinguished Speakers' Seminar in the European Economic and Financial Centre at a time to be determined.

Tuesday 12:30,Reserve Bank of AustraliaPublish interest rate decisions.

Wednesday 21:15,Bank of EnglandPresident Bailey gave a testimony in Parliament.

Wednesday at 22:00,Bank of CanadaPublish interest rate decisions.

Thursday 15:00-17:30,European Central BankManagement Committee Wensch, Holtzmann, Villeroy, Knott, Executive Committee Eldersen delivered speeches.

According to a Reuters poll, 34 out of 36 economists said,Reserve Bank of AustraliaThe cash rate will remain unchanged at 4.10 per cent on September 5. Andrew Tishurst, economist at Nomura, said it was expected next TuesdayReserve Bank of AustraliaLittle consideration will be given to the idea of further rate hikes at policy meetings.

The market generally expectsBank of CanadaNext week, Douglas Porter, a senior economist at the Bank of Montreal in Canada, said a monthly GDP rate of -0.2% in June and broad-based weakness in the economy would almost certainly leave the economy vulnerableBank of CanadaAfter a series of interest rate hikes in June and July, it is holding back in next week's interest rate decision. Katherine Judge, senior economist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Capital Markets, said the Canadian economy contracted in the second quarter, which madeBank of CanadaThe chances of a rate hike at next week's meeting have become remote.

Traders have reduced their interest inBank of EnglandBetting on rate hikes, two 25 basis point rate hikes are no longer fully priced in.Bank of EnglandIt is possible to maintain weak economic growth in response to inflation.

Eurozone CPI data released this week was not as bad as expected.European Central BankThe tone of officials' speeches was dovish and reflected a growing awareness of the threat of an economic slowdown. Money markets currently expectEuropean Central BankThe probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September is only about 20%. Morgan Stanley believes that based on the latest economic data,European Central BankThere will be no further interest rate hikes.

Key data: The euro falls below its 200-day moving average, and options traders increase their $100 oil price bets

Monday at 16:30, the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index for September.

Tuesday 09:45, China's August Caixin service PMI; 15:50-16:30, Germany, France, Britain, Eurozone August service PMI; 17:00, Eurozone July PPI monthly rate; 22:00, US July factory orders monthly rate;

Wednesday 09:30, Australia's second quarter GDP annual rate; 17:00, Eurozone July retail sales monthly rate; 21:45, US August Markit services PMI final value; 22:00, US August ISM non-manufacturing PMI; 22:30, US August 25 week EIA crude oil inventories;

Thursday at 10:00, China's August trade balance; 16:00, China's August foreign exchange reserves; 17:00, the end value of the second quarter GDP of the euro area, the quarterly rate of employment after the second quarter of the euro area, 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States; 23:00, the US EIA crude oil inventory, strategic petroleum reserve inventory;

Friday 07:50, Japan's second-quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate correction, Japan's July trade account; 14:00, Germany's August CPI monthly final rate; 20:30, Canada's August employment; 22:00, the United States July wholesale sales monthly rate.

The eurozone will be particularly busy with important data next week, with data this week showing a slowdown in service sector inflation and signs of a rapidly deteriorating economy that could tip the balance in favour of policymakers backing a pause in interest rate rises this month. Economic data to be released in the coming days will be the deciding factorEuropean Central BankThe key to making decisions in September.

Fears that Europe is facing stagflation - the result of a combination of weak economic activity and high inflation - have caused many euro bulls to surrender and dragged the euro lower.

Industrial foreign exchangeAnalysts cut their median forecast for the euro for the first time in six monthsInvestment banks, including Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase, expect the euro to fall towards 1.05 against the dollar, a level last seen during the banking crisis in March. BNP Paribas Asset Management even said the euro could reach 1.02 against the dollar. Technically, momentum indicators are weakening, with the euro/dollarFalling below the 200-day moving average, clearing the way for further declines。

The U.S. side focused on the services PMI. With a number of weaker than expected U.S. economic data this week, the U.S. stock market strengthened against the backdrop of fading expectations for rate hikes. The latest forecast from Michael Hartnett, the "most quasi-analyst on Wall Street" at Bank of America,From this month onward, there will be more and more evidence pointing to a "hard landing" for the economy.He warnedUS stocks face the risk of an economic hard landing。

The crude oil market will also keep an eye on economic data from various countries, especiallyUS crude oil inventory dataRebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth, said: "[WTI crude] $85 is a huge psychological price. To break through and keep it going, we need to confirm the extension of the Saudi-Russian production cut agreement and believe that market sentiment can improve. I think we [WTI crude] will break through $85 and keep it going, but we may test and fail a few times first."

Oil options traders are increasingly confident that the recent supply crunch in the market is likely to continue, which has intensifiedA bet that oil prices will rebound towards $100 a barrelAs of Friday, holdings of $100 calls over the next 12 months have increased from about 80,000 in mid-July to 120,000. The $90 and $100 calls are the two most held options over the next 12 months, and there are also a few bets that oil prices will rise further in 2025.