ATFX-Deutsche Bank: The US will experience more frequent recessions in the future, but not a bad thing

Deutsche Bank analysts say the period between 1980 and 2020 is uniqueofFor 40 years, the main feature was the continuous expansion of the US economy, but then,This modelLikely to bemorelawofProsperity- Depression cycleandmoreReplaced by frequent recessions。

Analysts released a report on MondayofThe Long-Term Asset Return Study states that, considering not sacrificing economic growthofPressure.In the coming decadesofRising inflation will limitFederal Reserve, etc.central bankofoperating space。At the same time, as the debt-to-GDP ratio is currently at a multi-decade lowofHigh position, whileGiven the structural rise in borrowing costs, can the government continue to use the U.S. deficit to prolong the business cycle?That's a big problem.。

Since January 1980, the United States has fallen into recession six times, four of which have lasted only two to eight months。As of this month, the world's largest economy has satisfied Deutsche Bank's claimsofFour so-called "triggers": rising inflation, an inverted yield curve, rising short-term interest rates, and rising oil prices。

Deutsche BankofThe point of view includes a bright spot, which is the frequentofA recession would turn intomorestrongoflong-term growth。At present, investorsandTraders have been debating whether and when the United States could be caught in one of the most anticipatedof"Economic recession。Deutsche Bank Global EconomicsandThematic Research Director Jim Reid, Strategist Henry AllenandAnalyst Galina Pozdnyakova said:

"On the surface, this seems undesirableofBut history tells us that recessions are not necessarily bad for economic growth in the long run。In fact, from our G7 countriesofAccording to the sample, the United States has the most frequent economic recessionsofCountry, but its economy is growing faster than that of other countriesmorestrong。”

In the United States, economic recessions are often accompanied by an S & P 500 index of more than 10%.ofsell。According to Deutsche BankofData, the recession caused the index to retractofMedianandThe average is -21%.andThe Great Depression of 1932 was the largest on recordofsell。However, according to Deutsche BankofResearch, due to its financial systemmorePlus is conducive to business development, the United StatesofLong-term stocks consistently outperform the rest of the G7。

They also wrote that artificial intelligence has the potential to make some industriesandJobs are becoming obsolete and "taking us away from the management of the past few decades."ofZombie World "。

"Whether it is 1980-2020ofThe golden macro era is over, or artificial intelligence will significantly subvert the status quo, most likelyofThe situation is long business cyclesofThe era is over.。”

While this will not necessarily have a negative impact on long-term economic performance, "it will clearly sustain macro volatility and trickle down to long periods of low volatility before becoming accustomed to the epidemic."ofIn the system。”