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Two weeks before and after our country's National Day holidayforeign exchange marketBasically stable closing, the span of the range is increasing, and everything changes in it. The depreciation of the US dollar remains unchanged, but the appreciation is strong. In two weeks, the US dollar index rose from 105.5845 points to 106.1276 points, an appreciation of 0.51%; the price of the range is at 105.5145-107.3502 points, the amplitude is 1.73%, but the depreciation focuses on the appreciation and the resistance is very clear. As a result, the depreciation of the European currency of the euro, the pound and the Swiss franc has a greater impact. The euro is as low as 1.04 US dollars, closing at 1.05 US dollars; the pound is as low as 1.20 US dollars, closing at 1.22 US dollars; the Swiss franc is as low as 0.90 Swiss francs, closing at 0.91 Swiss francs. The yen depreciated once reached 150 yen, but then rebounded 147 yen, closing at 148 yen. The Canadian dollar once reached 1.37 Canadian dollars, closing at 1.36 Canadian dollars. The volatility of the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar is relatively small, the Australian dollar ended at 0.63 US dollars, and the New Zealand dollar ended at 0.59 US dollars. Due to the difference in trading hours between the two places, the onshore pre-holiday market was stable at 7.29 yuan, and the offshore market ended at 7.30 yuan. However, the offshore volatility of the range is between 7.28-7 yuan, and the depreciation tendency remains unchanged.

　　The dollar factor is the main factor in the foreign exchange market. The superposition of technical operations and policy expectations makes the market torn and uncertain, but the direction of depreciation is still clear, but the depreciation resistance is strong, and the attitude of the dollar's moderate appreciation is clear and firm. Compared with the exchange rate fluctuations, there are many related factors, and the complexity factor is still the US monetary policy strategy to drive the depreciation of the dollar.

　　1. The improvement of the US economy is a last resort for the appreciation of the US dollar. The fundamentals of the US economy in the two weeks are the focus of supporting the appreciation of the US dollar, including the final stable economic growth in the second quarter of the United States, the positive US employment data, the strong US production indicators (durable goods, factory orders, and PMI manufacturing and service industry data), and the strong US consumption and investment enthusiasm have formed a virtuous circle, which are all supporting factors for the US dollar index to reach 107 points. However, the technical control of the appreciation of the US dollar is clear. The upper limit of the US dollar index is only 107.35 points, but the depreciation of the US dollar to 105.51 points and the polarization can still make it clear that the demand for the depreci In particular, this weekend's US employment data is a special manifestation of the dollar's bold depreciation. Friday's much-watched US September non-farm payrolls report showed that seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 336,000 in September, the largest increase since January 2023, far exceeding the average economist expected 170,000. The report shows that the number of new non-farm payrolls in July was revised up from 157,000 to 236,000; the number of new non-farm payrolls in August was revised up from 187,000 to 227,000. After the correction, the number of new jobs in July and August was 119,000 higher than before the revision. The US unemployment rate in September was 3.8%, expected 3.70%, and the previous value was 3.80%, which is already the low level of the US unemployment rate. The average weekly working hours in September was 34.4 hours, in line with expectations, which is in line with the average weekly working hours in August. The average hourly wage increased by 4.2% year-on-year in September, which was lower than the expected increase (4.3%). The average hourly wage increased by 4.3% year-on-year in August. The average hourly wage increased by 0.2% month-on-month in September, which was lower than the expected increase (0.3%). The average hourly wage increased by 0.2% month-on-month in August. Among them, employment positions in the leisure and hospitality industry, government, health care, professional, technology services and social assistance all increased in September. In particular, many market participants had expected a slightly weaker employment report, but the strong September non-farm payrolls data pointed to a stable labor market in the United States, strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again this year and maintain its high interest rate policy for a longer period of time.

　　2. It is the focus of the US investment market portfolio to pave the way for the future. The soaring yield of US Treasury bonds in the past two weeks is the focus. The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has risen to 4.9% and is about to break through 5%. The yield of 30-year Treasury bonds is 4.936% and will also break through 5%. It is expected that the yield of long-term bonds may reach 5.15% and the yield of 2-year bonds has reached 5.148%. After the US non-farm payrolls data was released on Friday, the yield of US 10-year Treasury bonds rose to 4.887%, a new high since 2007. The yield of 30-year Treasury bonds rose to 5.04%, the highest level since 2007. At the end of the day on Friday, the increase of US Treasury yields narrowed, and the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds On the one hand, it indicates that the Federal Reserve will not stop raising interest rates, and the high level of the dollar base rate still has room or continues to exceed expectations. On the other hand, it shows that the reality that the Federal Reserve does not raise interest rates is achieving the effect of raising interest rates through the rise in Treasury bond yields, and the rise in yields is also equivalent to raising interest rates. This is the advanced and forward-looking factor of the Fed's interest rate policy portfolio. Compared with the decline in the US stock market, it runs in the opposite direction with the US bond yield, and then the US domestic ROI rate is not affected. The US investment efficiency protects itself and benefits others and others. It is quite ingenious. Therefore, Bank of America data shows that US bond funds outflow $2.50 billion in the week ended Wednesday, but US Treasury bonds flow into $4.60 billion The US investment strategy focuses on the adjustment of the domestic market is a strategy of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy operation. As Fed Daly said, the Fed can temporarily hold its hands, but the sharp rise in bond yields is equivalent to a rate hike, which is where the dollar is so good.

　　3. The increasingly complex changes in the external environment indicate that the upward trend remains unchanged. On the one hand, the price of gold has fallen significantly. Although this is related to the appreciation of the US dollar, it also indicates that the probability and trend of gold's rise will strengthen when the depreciation of the US dollar intensifies. These include the hype of adverse events and market nervousness, such as the spread of strikes in US cars, the government shutdown caused by US debt, and the disruption of fiscal deficit pressure to the economy. These are all factors that are not conducive to the US dollar. They are also inevitable conditions for the depreciation of the US dollar. On the other hand, the decline in oil prices to break the threshold of 90 US dollars. Technical preparation may be a key factor. After all, the upward logic involving oil factors is greater than the possibility of decline. The current Despite signs of tightness in the oil market at the moment, the prospect of increased supply in the future, technology-driven selling and algorithm-driven will combine to drive oil prices higher. Oil prices rose 40% from mid-June to late September, although the trend reversed over the past week, and there was a lot of commentary in the market about the excessive rise in crude oil. Oil prices fell back against the backdrop of rising concerns about interest rates and the economy, as well as stock and bond markets. Gasoline futures tumbled 6% to $2.22 a gallon, as data showed gasoline demand fell to its lowest seasonal level in 25 years, indicating a slowdown in economic growth. Meanwhile, inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, the largest oil storage center in the United States, increased for the first time in eight weeks. Nonetheless, inventories across the country continue to decline, falling to their lowest level since December 2022, and a major pipeline in North America also saw a drop in volumes this week. It is expected that the global crude oil premium will soar, and if the United States runs out of stocks, there will be no oil in Europe, which is the killer of sanctions against the euro. Due to strong overseas exports and domestic demand, the rapid reduction of US crude oil reserves, and the United States oil as one of the crude oil price benchmarks will directly affect the global oil price. This has spread to crude oil markets from Asia to the Middle East to Europe. Crude oil buyers are willing to pay higher premiums to ensure supply. Oil prices are expected to rise more rapidly and break through again.

　　It is expected that the market will be more reversible next week, and the superimposed benefits of technology, policy, and cycles will highlight the intention of the United States to involve and manipulate factors. Firstly, the depreciation of the dollar is the key, secondly, the rise of commodities is the core, and the passive follow-up of the basket of currencies is unavoidable.