ATFX - [Futures Hotspot Tracking] External oil prices fell sharply, and internal crude oil commodities jumped sharply!

In early trading, crude oil varieties opened sharply lower, with SC crude oil and fuel oil falling by 6%. However, most institutions are still optimistic about the outlook for crude oil.

During the 11th holiday, the prices of crude oil and refined oil fell sharply on the outside market. The market expressed concern about the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and the continued high operation of the US dollar. Moreover, the US gasoline inventory increased, the peak driving travel season ended, the US crude oil demand weakened, and the US stock market continued to fall. The market's risk aversion appetite cooled significantly, and international oil prices fell by more than 10 US dollars compared with before the holiday. However, the conflict between Palestine and Israel escalated over the weekend, and US crude oil also opened higher on Monday morning, and the decline during the holiday period narrowed. Early in the day, crude oil varieties opened sharply lower, with SC crude oil and fuel oil falling 6% and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) falling 5%.

For the follow-up, with the sudden outbreak of war in Israel, crude traders do not expect prices to continue to rise sharply due to the conflict, as there is no immediate threat to supply. ButAll eyes are on IranIt is a major oil producer and a major backer of Hamas, which launched this weekend's attacks on Israel.

A retaliatory strike against Iran would raise concerns about the Strait of HormuzThis is an important shipping artery, and Tehran has previously threatened to close the strait. In addition,The momentum of another U.S. crackdown on Iranian oil exports is also a possible prospect(Click to view details)

How do institutions perceive the follow-up trend of crude oil futures?

Merya Futures: In the short term, the supply and demand pattern is relatively stable in the context of oil-producing countries not suspending production cuts

Overall, the short-term risk of oil prices falling by more than $10 during the holiday has been released. Concerns about interest rate hikes, the increase in bearish inventories that oil-producing countries may increase production in the future, and the weakening of gasoline demand have pressured oil prices at a high level. The market is worried that the Federal Reserve will need to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period of time to curb inflation. It is expected that after the holiday, the geopolitical events brought about by the Palestinian-Israeli conflict may slow down the risk of oil prices continuing to fall sharply in the short term. In the short term, in the context of oil-producing countries not suspending production cuts, the supply and demand pattern is relatively stable, and more needs to be vigilant against the pressure brought by the macro level. On the first trading day after the holiday, it is expected that the domestic SC decline will be around 6%

Guosen Futures: Oil prices may be expected to stabilize and rebound after the holiday, and it is recommended that there are many ideas for shock

During the National Day holiday, international oil prices fell sharply. But the number of active oil and gas drilling platforms in the United States continued to decrease. According to data released by Baker Hughes, an oilfield service organization of General Electric Company, the number of online drilling wells in the United States was 497 in the week ended October 6, the lowest level since February 2022, a decrease of 5 from the previous week; a decrease of 105 from the same period last year. Saudi Arabia and Russia have extended the policy of additional voluntary reduction of crude oil supply to the end of this year, and the global crude oil supply is still tight. Israel has declared a state of war and is concerned about whether the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will further escalate. Pay attention to the support of WTI crude oil in the United States near $80/barrel. Oil prices may be expected to stabilize and rebound after the holiday. It is recommended that there can be

Minmetals Futures: Strategic thinking focuses on finding low valuation opportunities and buying on dips

Crude oil fundamentals are temporarily stable. From the perspective of inventories, U.S. crude oil inventories fell slightly last week, and Northwest European crude oil inventories fell sharply, both falling to the lowest level in the same period of five years. From the perspective of supply, the OPEC meeting on October 4 decided to maintain the production policy unchanged. In September, OPEC production was basically flat month-on-month; Russian crude oil exports increased, and refined oil exports declined. From the perspective of demand, China's PMI rebounded in September, the United States was flat month-on-month, and Europe rose slightly. The slowdown in the service industry and the end of the peak travel season weakened gasoline demand. The recovery in manufacturing and the increase in truck freight boosted the recovery in diesel demand. The gasoline price gap, which widened sharply in the first half of the year, narrowed sharply in the second half of the year. In the medium term, supply may remain relatively low, The strategic thinking is to look for low valuation opportunities and buy on the dip. There will be great pressure at $100 this year, and the oil price is already too high before the holiday to have buying value. But after this round of correction, there may be opportunities to build positions again.

SDIC Anxin Futures: The market will reassess the geopolitical premium, and oil prices will enjoy short-term support

International oil prices fell sharply during the holiday, mainly due to multiple factors such as higher US bond yields and the US dollar, the expected easing of US-Saudi relations, and the weakening of the EIA weekly gasoline table. The negative feedback at the macro and micro levels under high oil prices has been fulfilled. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict escalated over the weekend, and neither Palestine nor Israel is a major oil producer. The direct impact of the conflict on supply and demand is relatively limited, but the market will reassess the geopolitical premium, mainly reflected in the possible re-tightening of US sanctions on Iran and the increasing uncertainty of the easing of relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia. Oil prices have ushered in short-term support. Subsequent statements and developments may dominate the oil price fluctuations this week. It is recommended to wait and see.