News and Information

  A growing number of Societe Generale FX economists, including Federal Reserve insiders, are predicting that the U.S. will emerge from recession, but the answer to that question won't be determined until 2024. Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell has said he expects the Fed to guide the U.S. economy to expand while achieving its goal of bringing inflation back down to 2 percent, but that task will be challenging. On the one hand, failure to take sufficiently aggressive measures to counter price pressures could lead to a rebound in inflation, which would need to be followed by tougher measures...

  Although more and more people on Wall Street believe that the Federal Reserve may not raise interest rates again, this does not mean that the turmoil in the bond market will soon be a thing of the past. Investors expect that U.S. Treasuries will continue to be affected by increased volatility, as economic uncertainty could change the Fed's policy path or allow it to keep interest rates at higher levels for much longer than traders currently expect. Some Fed officials have emphasized that despite the most aggressive monetary policy move in 40 years...

  The People's Bank of China authorized the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center to announce that on August 14, 2023, the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1686 yuan for 1 US dollar, 7.8988 yuan for 1 euro, 4.9992 yuan for 100 yen, 0.91701 yuan for 1 Hong Kong dollar, 9.1756 yuan for 1 pound, 4.6973 yuan for 1 Australian dollar, and 4.6973 yuan for 1 New Zealand dollar.

  The People's Bank of China authorized the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center to announce that on August 11, 2023, the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1587 yuan for 1 US dollar, 7.9171 yuan for 1 euro, 4.9842 yuan for 100 yen, 0.91551 yuan for 1 Hong Kong dollar, 9.1375 yuan for 1 pound, 4.7023 yuan for 1 Australian dollar, and 4.7023 yuan for 1 New Zealand dollar.

  At 8:30 pm Beijing time on Thursday, the US will release CPI data for July. At present, the market expects it to rise by 3.3% year-on-year, accelerating from the previous value of 3%. It is the first year-on-year increase since June 2022. The month-on-month growth rate is the same as the previous value, still 0.2%. The year-on-year growth rate of the core CPI and the month-on-month growth rate remain unchanged from the previous value, at 4.8% and 0.2% respectively. If these expectations are indeed met, the market will continue to accept the reason of disinflation...

  U.S. stocks have seen an impressive rally so far this year as the feared recession appears to be coming later than most people initially expected, and even now recession fears are fading. The S & P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both entered bull markets earlier this year, and are up 17% and 39%, respectively, so far this year. Ed Yardeni, a veteran of the Societe Generale foreign exchange market, spoke on Wednesday in a...

  As global markets continue to tighten, the upward momentum in oil prices since the second half of the year appears to be recovering. Analysts believe that the next test for both the long and short sides in the oil market is coming.... As global markets continue to tighten, the upward momentum in oil prices since the second half of the year appears to be recovering. Brent crude futures are currently trading near $87 a barrel after climbing for six consecutive weeks. Since the beginning of the year, traders have been betting on a rebound in the second half of 2023, while with...

  An ATFX index that tracks central bank communications shows that the European Central Bank is more successful at moving markets in the desired direction, while Fed communications often struggle to produce a consistent market linkage... An index created by the ECB to measure the tone of its communications shows that the ECB's press conferences are more capable of navigating financial marekts than the Fed. The ability to guide investor expectations is a crucial policy tool for central banks, so the European...

  ATFX official website - "Americans are scared of inflation!" Although inflation is cooling, Americans are still troubled by high prices. Can the CPI, which will be released on Thursday, put an end to this? Foreign media say that while people are saying that inflation in the United States is cooling, it really doesn't feel like anything is getting cheaper. That's because most things really haven't dropped in price. Inflation is expressed in terms of the rate of change, and the so-called "disinflation" actually refers to the actual price...

  Arm's IPO, which is expected to raise $10 billion and could be valued at up to $70 billion, is expected to be the largest IPO in the tech industry after Alibaba and Meta. Amazon.com Inc is in talks with other tech companies to become an anchor investor in Arm Ltd's initial public offering (IPO), according to people familiar with the matter, in preparation for an upcoming deal that could raise up to $10 billion...

  Traders shorting both the VIX call and put options are raising alarm. Nomura warns that the "fear index" could explode, and Thursday's CPI data could be an important opportunity... Friday's non-farm payroll data may be the catalyst that finally awakens the fear index (VIX) from its slumber. Charlie McElligott of Nomura says the fear index is becoming "nervous and squeezed" (Nerv...

  On August 9, the US dollar rose across the board on Tuesday, gaining safe-haven buying. European risk-sensitive currencies fell due to the worsening global outlook. Gold prices fell to their lowest level in nearly a month. Investors took refuge in the US dollar after the release of weak trade data from Asian giants. At the same time, caution shrouded the market ahead of the release of US inflation data later this week. On Wednesday (August 9), Beijing time, the US dollar rose across the board on Tuesday, gaining safe-haven buying. European risk-sensitive currencies fell due to the global outlook.

  ATFX official website - Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Harker, who is widely regarded as a dove, said on Tuesday that unless there is a sudden change in the direction of economic data in the near future, the Federal Reserve may be at a stage where it can keep interest rates on hold, that is, the current rate hike cycle of the Federal Reserve may be over. In a speech prepared in Philadelphia, Harker said, "From now until mid-September, if there is no new data that is worrying, I believe we may be patient, keep interest rates stable, and let's take...

  U.S. oil production will grow faster than previously expected this year, providing additional crude supplies to an oil market strained by Saudi Arabia's production cuts, according to a new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Higher-than-expected well productivity and rising crude prices will help the U.S. boost production to a record 12.80 million barrels per day in 2023 from a previous forecast of 12.60 million barrels per day, according to the EIA's monthly report released on Tuesday. 2022...

  The People's Bank of China authorized the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center to announce that on August 9, 2023, the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1588 yuan for 1 US dollar, 7.8984 yuan for 1 euro, 5.0389 yuan for 100 yen, 0.91613 yuan for 1 Hong Kong dollar, 9.1887 yuan for 1 pound, 4.7172 yuan for 1 Australian dollar, and 4.7172 yuan for 1 New Zealand dollar.