News and Information

  Ed Morse, global head of commodities research at Citigroup Inc., said oil prices were unlikely to fall below $70 a barrel, but "uncertain" events would be needed to push prices above $90 a barrel. Morse said in a TV interview that Brent crude found support around $70 a barrel because of several fundamentals. First, OPEC + doesn't want...

  Investors are eager to declare victory in the Fed's war on inflation. But strategist Alyce Anders said that if you take a more objective view of the data, then the June CPI data does not suggest that inflation is accelerating towards the Fed's target level. Anders acknowledged that there was a lot to watch in last week's report, with overall CPI rising just 0.2% month-on-month and falling at an annualized rate of 1% to 3.0%.

  On July 18, market analyst Gary Howes said that to boost the Australian dollar, the Australian dollar will need to release unexpectedly strong inflation data next week to stimulate the Reserve Bank of Australia to resume the rate hike cycle. On July 26 (Wednesday) at 09:30 Beijing time, Australia will release the June CPI. According to the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's July monetary policy meeting, compared with the previous decision to press the pause button, the board members' support for the decision to keep interest rates unchanged...

  As markets and economists await the latest housing and retail sales data to be released this week, consumer confidence rose sharply in July, signaling another soft landing for the U.S. economy. June U.S. retail sales will be released at 20:30 Beijing time on Tuesday, and May retail sales improved modestly. The market expects the monthly rate of retail sales in June to increase by 0.5%, a further improvement from the previous value of 0.3%. Consumers are still spending the savings they have accumulated in the epidemic, as...

  Portfolio investors are back in the oil market as Saudi Arabia unilaterally cuts production, removing the downside risk to oil prices from a previous slowdown in major economies. In the seven days to July 11, hedge funds and other fund managers bought the equivalent of 115 million barrels of crude in the six most important oil futures and options contracts. This was one of the largest increases in the past 10 years (the 14th largest increase in 539 weeks since 2013), indicating that traders are...

  Recent positive data on economic activity and inflation suggest that the U.S. economy is more likely to avoid a recession over the next 12 months, according to Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs Group. Hatzius said on Monday that the bank downgraded the probability of a U.S. recession starting in the next 12 months to 20 percent from a previous forecast of 25 percent. "The main reason we downgraded this forecast is that recent data have strengthened...

  Mr. Clarida, a former vice-chairperson of the US Federal Reserve, said it was understandable for markets to bet on a rate cut in March, given the prospect of a "soft landing" for the economy and the prospect of inflation being brought under control. "It makes sense for the Fed to cut rates in March, or at least to strongly signal at its March meeting that a rate cut is coming," Mr. Clarida, now a global economic adviser to Pimco, said in an interview in Singapore.

  The People's Bank of China authorized the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center to announce that on July 18, 2023, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1453 yuan for 1 US dollar, 8.0550 yuan for 1 euro, 5.1687 yuan for 100 yen, 0.91436 yuan for 1 Hong Kong dollar, 9.3692 yuan for 1 pound, 4.8875 yuan for 1 Australian dollar, and 4.8875 yuan for 1 New Zealand dollar.

  S & P 500 companies are expecting second-quarter profits to fall 9%, making it their worst quarter since 2020, while Europe could be worse, with a 12% decline expected, data showed. But with expectations already low and some indicators suggesting earnings could pick up next year, strategists are divided on how the market will react. Evgenia Molotova, senior investment manager at Pictet Asset Management, said: "I have a strong opinion of companies this quarter...

  Economists are lowering their expectations for a recession. Corporate and academic economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal believe that slowing inflation, the labor market remains strong and the economy's resilience have reduced the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 54% from 61% in the previous two surveys. While the probability remains high compared to historical data, it was the largest month-on-month decline since August 2020 as the economy emerges from a short-lived but severe epidemic-induced downturn.

  　　Jeremy Siegel, a longtime stock market bull and former Wharton professor, believes the US economy is in a Goldilocks state, neither too cold nor too hot. That is his view of the economy after June's lower-than-expected inflation data. "It's a Goldilocks economy - strong growth and falling inflation [of 6, -0.02, -0.33 per cent]," Mr. Siegel said in an interview on Friday. He believes that the Federal Reserve has...

  On Monday (July 17), in early Asian trading, spot gold maintained a slight downward trend, with gold prices now trading at around $1,952/ounce. Gold traders are eyeing the upcoming Chinese GDP and other blockbuster economic data, which are expected to provide important support for the short-term trend of gold prices. FXStreet analyst Anil Panchal wrote in the latest article on Monday that last week, in the United States, inflation clues showed that the Federal Reserve's end of the interest rate hike cycle...

  The People's Bank of China authorized the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center to announce that on July 17, 2023, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was 1 US dollar to 7.1326 yuan, 1 euro to 8.0150 yuan, 100 yen to 5.1467 yuan, 1 Hong Kong dollar to 0.91273 yuan, 1 pound to 9.3454 yuan, 1 Australian dollar to 4.8795 yuan, 1 New Zealand dollar to RMB...

  On July 17, Beijing time, in the early morning of the Asian market, the US dollar index fluctuated narrowly, and is currently trading around 99.96. The US dollar index rebounded on Friday as investors consolidated losses before the weekend, but the trend of the US dollar is still inclined to the downside, because the Federal Reserve is considered to be nearing the end of the interest rate hike cycle in the case of weak inflation. UBS said that the position of the new chairperson of the Reserve Bank of Australia is still unclear and may be dovish. The European Central Bank meeting notes show that the European Central Bank may need to continue after July...

  The movement of exchange rates is highly random, which means that: 1. Any investor is likely to make money in the short term from a local perspective, which can easily arouse people's infinite reverie about foreign exchange investment. 2. Investors have a very low probability of winning in the long run. Almost all investors have a profitable experience, but most investors have difficulty systematically analyzing the trading process, and do not have the advanced analytical and trading skills that institutional or professional investors have. Therefore,...