The technical indicators of the disaster again are not as powerful as the k-line chart!

First, the power of trends

Once a trend is formed, it will not simply reverse and reverse, and any unexpected situation (such as the Goldman Sachs investigation, the manipulation of big players in Zhejiang, the earthquake caused by small devils, the sudden dumping of national reserves, the sudden increase in the central bank's margin, the sudden interest rate hike, and the recent downgrade of the old US by Standard & Poor, etc.) cannot change the trend immediately. When the market digests the news, it will still return to its original path.

Second, all the actions of the market are to play you, the market trap

Everything the market does is to play you. This is technical analysis. And I dare say that the way of operation based on this statement is unmatched by any known analysis method.

For example, any market that is very good will end in the craziest. This is a conclusion with high probability. When you look at the market to the craziest, and you decide to enter after a long hesitation, you are doomed to be thrown to the top or bottom.

For example, the start of any market is always when people think it is impossible, and the principle of breaking and then standing is the same. There is also a head-and-shoulders counterattack.

How are the traps in the market formed? In fact, these traps in the market are not deliberately created by humans. These traps are the most basic manifestation of human nature. All human inferiority and brilliance are reflected from here.

Stop loss is not the most critical, and the mentality can not be too good, as long as you have an average opening price that can sit on the mountain and watch the tiger fight. And this average opening price of sitting on the mountain and watching the tiger fight comes from the trap of the market, which is the most powerful type of person in the market, the dancer on the trap.

How to judge what is falling or rising trend formation, it also requires the help of traps. Let me give an example, let's say you use the price falling below the 30-minute 60-day moving average as the basis for the end of a short-term rising market. When the price breaks the 60-day moving average and pulls back, if the price breaks the 60-day moving average correctly, the decline after the top is very rapid. If you break through the 60-day line and pull up quickly, don't worry. There is a high probability that the price will step back on the 60-day line again, and you can at least lose a little at that time. It is such a simple method. I have created a record of 70% in 23 days on Tiantong Silver, which is much more difficult to play than futures, and the trading rules pit people.

The market is going crazy every day, and no one is willing to pay higher or lower prices. If the market wants to continue, it must go out of the secondary reversal trend to attract everyone to participate. This secondary reversal trend is very harmful. For those who are familiar with the rules of the game, it is the position to open a position and add a position. Likewise, if you are not familiar with it, such secondary reversal can definitely kill a lot of people. The reversal trend itself is deceiving. If the reversal trend suddenly accelerates sharply one day, it will come to an end.

The best type of person in this market is the dancer on the trap. And the dancer on the trap is simply going against the small trend and following the trend. In any market, no matter how good the trend is, there will be a retracement. This is a 100% thing, and the retracement is extremely fierce. Breaking the position, increasing the volume of the position, and the indicator is bad, and I like this situation very much. The more so, the more opportunities. For me, who has less money, the only way I can reduce my opening costs and make my position have a safe price to sit on the mountain and watch the tiger fight.

The most common way for capital markets to kill people is to move sideways, and sideways is the biggest trap. In the sideways stage, technical analysis will be ineffective. Sideways are also often a signal that a bigger market is about to appear. First, the market often has a very strong false breakout in the opposite direction before choosing the true direction of the sideways. Second, after the sideways break, the sideways range is often tested. Well, for example, if you want to take a position in the sideways stage, the reverse false breakout is the best opportunity. Even if it is wrong, there is a backtest range for you to escape. If you have a list in hand and have a floating profit, then leave it alone. After the consolidation, there is often a good chance to continue the original trend. Even if the consolidation reverses, there are also reverse false breakouts, which can stop the win.

Trading with the traps of the market is undoubtedly a simple and practical way, and this simple way has sufficient theoretical basis. The rules of the game of the futures market determine that any market cannot do without traps, and any technical indicators will not tell you what the future will be like. They are just market followers, so there is no confidence in the hearts of traders. But traps can tell you that the market has finished playing, and there must be action.

III. K-line chart, large form, cross-cycle

For a good trader, no technical indicator is as powerful as a k-line chart. Some large technical graphs such as triangles, heads and shoulders, domes and bottoms often have unexpected effects once they are formed on the daily cycle. Once a large-cycle technical graph is formed, the trend must be completed, and the main force cannot be changed. The only thing it can do is to create an illusion and influence you to follow the graph.

If the weekly line forms an upward triangle to break through, then no matter how much the daily line is tossed, it must eventually serve the weekly trend. This greatly improves the maneuverability and allows you to hold your cards in the daily trading. Playing cross-cycle, as long as you judge the big cycle correctly, you can call the shots on the short cycle, and no one will try to deceive you. And we know that the larger the cycle, the more reliable the pattern is, which itself is a high winning rate trade.

Cross-cycle is a means of generating huge profits. The difficulty of cross-cycle is that you can't confirm what the current trend is, and the large k-line pattern is a very reliable conclusion on the large cycle. To solve this problem that bothers you, only the large k-line combination can be effective. Three or four k-line patterns such as Doji, Pregnancy Line, and Dark Cloud Cover are basically lying to you without negotiation. And relying on these as the basis for your transactions will basically kill you. This is also the macro thinking of futures trading.

IV. My trading strategy

My trading philosophy is very BT, and the core ideas are three: 1. Regarding technical analysis, the market will play with people; 2. Reduce transaction costs (handling fees, opening prices, etc.); 3. Stop losses.

Personal trading strategy is very simple, the core is not to break the previous high, not to break the previous low, and to break through the shock. These are all techniques, nothing, very few market prices to open a position, all pending orders. Because the market will play people, it is bound to create a large number of long or short traps, using these traps will reduce your positioning costs. This is very important, the better the price, the safer you are, and the less you need to fear.

Stop loss is the final bottom line, any technical analysis method is to play the probability (nothing more than high probability, low probability), so you must wear a condom to be safe.

How to identify trends

There is no standard answer to the question of what you use to cut the cake in the market to determine how you determine the trend. For example, someone believes that on the weekly line, the 5-week moving average is a dead fork, the 10-week moving average is a short trend, and the gold fork is a long trend. Within his framework, the market is divided by him. Another example is to split the rising trend and the falling trend with the 20-day moving average.

In a more high-end approach, that man can know where the center of gravity of market transactions is just by looking at the k-line chart, which can completely use the dense trading areas as a battlefield for long and short duels to track the trend. But no matter what, don't try to sell the highest and buy the lowest, that's simply a legend.

What is a trend is simpler, in fact, what everyone can see, but is ignored. An uptrend is a pullback that does not break the previous low, and a downtrend is a rise that does not break the previous high. A nonsense is also true. Trends are such characteristics, and they are the most obvious characteristics, no matter on any cycle chart.

When using those tricks to guess the market, when using those brilliant technical indicators to predict the future, you might as well take a serious look at Dow Theory and learn the 123 rule, which lags behind incomparably, but is incomparably effective.

Lighten your position a bit, or patiently find a more favorable opening price, put a larger stop loss. Then go fishing every day, and after a while you will find that you will make more money, provided of course that your money does not affect your life.

No one knows what didn't happen. A consolidation range, who knows where it will go before breaking through, even if it breaks through, it will break up and fall, and break down and rise. Using those technical analysis methods is useless.

Sixth, moving averages and trends

The effect of different cycle moving averages on price support (suppression is also, let's take going long as an example), what kind of effect will it have? For example, the price of x starts to reverse, x breaks through the 60-day moving average, and then steps back to the 40-day moving average. Now we can basically be sure that the bulls have taken advantage, and the strength of the bears has been unable to suppress the price of x below the 60-day moving average. We start to go long. After the price has risen, it will pull back again. If the price reaches the 20-day moving average and cannot go down, then I will increase my position, because the trend of the market has strengthened again, and the bears have nothing to do with the 40-day moving average, and the price starts to rise. The most perfect effect is that the bears can't even do anything about the 10-day moving average. The same is true when reversing a sharp decline. The most perfect effect is to fall below the 60-day moving average in one fell swoop, and then the price pulls back, unable to return to the 60-day level. Basically, it is certain that the trend is turning.

The effect of different cyclical averages on price support and suppression will have an impact on future trends. The more powerless the price is to the small cyclical averages, the stronger the trend will be. All the clues of long and short conversion, the allocation of funds in fund management can be mastered with a small moving average.

Seven, stop loss, take profit

If your judgment of the market is very accurate, you can put your stop loss higher. The most important thing is to control your hands and not withdraw until you reach the stop loss point. After making a profit, you can raise the stop loss point, buy the right one and take it to death, even if there are suddenly three limit increases.

Many people ask how to take a profit. There is only one standard for taking a profit, which is larger than your stop loss. Just hold the mentality of making money, and you will never want to make money. Also, if he messes with you, you have to mess with him even harder. Frankly speaking, it is difficult to make money in this market without taking a list that makes a lot of money as a loss.

The main money-losing groups in the market are the so-called troublemakers, the smart people who are safe in their bags, the smart people who operate the rolling operation, and the comrades who always think they can buy the lowest and sell the highest, and make all the money in the market.

Uncle Z is a very sedentary person, and his courage comes from the fact that he is always ready to fail. His ability can withstand it, and he will not stop his losses, even if those messy techniques tell him that he should stop his losses. Likewise, his take profit is also very wide, and what Uncle Z is talking about is that this man once earned more than 70,000 yuan from second-hand sugar. This is really a dead-hearted defeat of capitalism.

Stick to the rules

The market is a casino, and futures are gambling. Those technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and historical data research, let's save it. In the gamble of futures, there are two conditions that greatly increase the odds of winning. The first is called "following the trend", and the second is called "probability".

The most important thing to pay attention to is how much capital you have, which is the most true. Because every profit is made with your equity. There is no risk-free opportunity in speculative markets. The expansion of your trading scale and the choice of trading varieties are based on the growth of funds.

I don't think stop loss is a means to avoid death. In my opinion, its function is to give me courage. I rarely use stop loss, but I must definitely hang it every time. Although the price I put up is difficult to make a deal, it is the source of all courage. Because that is the only thing I am sure of in this uncertain game. Secondly, in this uncertain game, high winning rate trading opportunities are also the source of your courage and confidence.

Face up to the risk, since you have joined this market, since you have already played this game. In the case of good money management, you'd better be fearless, otherwise the graphics will not look good, and you will be afraid of any news, so don't do it as soon as possible.

The easiest way is to find an effective rule (a system with positive returns), go to the market to cut the cake, don't think about the market too complicated, use some simple rules, just find a basis (a moving average can be used), dead-hearted, light positions, and disciplined to do it, and you will definitely gain something. Many masters in history have been so successful. You can make money in any way, but don't be hesitant. If your knowledge is mixed, then sorry, you will definitely be eliminated by this market.

It is very important to abide by the trading rules. Most people in this market are losing money. Take today's QE3 as an example. No matter how short it is, if you cut your position or increase your position this morning without looking at it, it proves that your mentality is not suitable for mixing in this market. If you abide by the established trading rules regardless of QE3 and QE8, then even if you lose money, I have to say to you that you are qualified.

No matter what the central bank says or does, you must understand that your trading system is what you should abide by the most. Do your own thing well. If the reason for entering the market is broken, it is natural to leave. If not, then calm down. This is the calmness a trader must have.

When you truly adhere to the trading rules, you are doomed to have no common language with most people.

The so-called trading is psychological detachment: the first level is like most people in Speculative Island and Hexun, who are torn by the ups and downs of the market every day, talking about technical analysis, QE3 and other things. The second level, including me and many people, uses rules to trade the market. Although they don't care about the wind and grass of the market and can abide by discipline, they are still bound by the rules. The third level is like Uncle X, who has no rules.

I hope everyone will be the second layer, and the third layer does not belong to the vast majority of us. In Uncle X's words, there are few people in China who do futures that he likes.

Uncle X's trading level is completely at the level of gods, and he dares to do more than X's market. There are few great people who go long at the limit down and short at the limit up. Uncle X is one of them (except for some sb). He has not done less to know the real situation at the top. There are no dead rules in his trading rules.

Many of us also often copy the top to know the real situation, but even if you copy it right, you will run to make money. Because of your mindset, you decide that this is a counter-trend order in your heart, so you can't hold it. As for Uncle X, as long as he makes money, he will always hold it.

The limit of dead-mindedness is within your established trading strategy, and sticking to the trading strategy must be dead-hearted. There is no need to care about how it goes, just admit defeat at the stop. If not, let him toss it, toss out the price you think you can leave.

Uncle X's trading method is more unique, complete k-line chart. He is trading volatility, he believes that the oscillation range is the center of gravity of the market, when the market breaks through the oscillation range, then the oscillation range will be the most critical, resistance and support level. It is also the price he is worth betting on, and what is even more terrifying is that his stop loss is not a certain point, but the entire range.

I only admire one kind of person very, very much, this kind of person is the comrades who can hold the profit list. Without the courage to carry a back and forth, what do you talk about making money? Don't think that those comrades who watch the cooked duck fly are fools, they are the ones who really understand the market.

Livermore said that I make money because I can sit still better than others. This is a naked analysis of futures trading. In this game of betting with losses you can know and profits you don't know, you do need to sit most of the time.