Crude oil trading reminder: global trade sentiment eased, supporting a slight rebound in oil prices, but not changing the medium-term downward trend

International crude oil prices edged higher on Tuesday, as the US and Asian powers agreed to extend the 90-day suspension of tariffs, easing market concerns about trade. Brent crude oil futures were flat at $66.65 a barrel; US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were slightly volatile at $63.89 a barrel.

The US said the extension of the tariff suspension was aimed at avoiding the impact of the end-of-year holiday spending season, while also providing time for further negotiations between the two sides. The move is widely believed to lead to a deal to avoid weighing on economic growth in both countries, thereby supporting global crude oil demand.

The focus was also on the August 15 meeting between the US and Russian presidents in Alaska, which sought to end the conflict with Ukraine while avoiding tougher secondary sanctions on Russian oil buyers, including Asian powers and India.

Daniel Hynes, senior commodities strategist at ANZ, said: "Any Russian-Ukrainian peace deal would eliminate the long-standing risk of disruptions to Russian oil supply in the market."

The US had previously set a deadline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire or face sanctions against its main buyer, and urged India to reduce its oil imports. It has also pressured Asian powers to stop buying Russian oil, but the risk of sanctions has been significantly reduced ahead of the meeting.

In addition, the market will also be watching the upcoming US inflation data, which may affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations. If the data release a signal of interest rate cuts, crude oil prices may gain further support.

From a technical perspective, the daily chart of US crude oil shows that the price is supported near $63, the short-term moving average has begun to turn upward, and the MACD red column continues to grow, indicating that the bulls are gaining momentum.

If it breaks through the near-term resistance level of $64.80, oil prices are expected to reach the $66 line; conversely, if it falls below the $63.00 support, it may trigger a new round of correction.

Editorial opinion:

From the current situation, the suspension of tariffs and the expectation of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine will bring short-term benefits to the oil market, but the actual effect depends on the outcome of the negotiations and the direction of the Federal Reserve's policy. If the negotiations break down or inflation data is higher than expected, oil prices may come back under pressure. Therefore, it is necessary to pay close attention to the simultaneous changes in political and economic signals.