Palm oil weekly Sanlianyang hidden mysteries, traders keep an eye on 4593 ringgit technical defense line

On Friday (August 22), the main palm oil contract FCPOc3 of the Malaysian Derivatives Exchange (BMD) closed at 4531 ringgit/ton, an increase of 1.59% in a single day, and a weekly increase of 1.32%, achieving the third consecutive week of closing. The intraday price fluctuation range is in line with the expectations of technical analysis. After breaking through the middle track of the Bollinger Band (4357 ringgit) during the day, the upper track (4593 ringgit) was tested. The RSI indicator was at 64.99, indicating that the market sentiment was strong but did not enter the overbought range.

The marginal tightening of supply and demand pattern, export data continued to improve

Since August, the growth rate of palm oil production in Malaysia has slowed significantly. According to Paramalingam Supramaniam, director of Pelindung Bestari, a local brokerage: "Preliminary data suggest that production rose only marginally by 2-3% in August, while export demand will remain strong in August and September." This view is supported by export data: data from independent inspection companies ITS and AmSpec Agri show that exports of palm oil products from Malaysia rose by 13.6% to 17% month-on-month from August 1 to 20. Weak supply growth and export resilience have combined to support an upward shift in the price center of gravity.

The external oil market has been strengthened, and the price difference between substitutes has been restructured

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean oil rallied slightly after rising 4.73% the previous day, but maintained a high and volatile overall; the main soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose 0.64% in the day, and the palm oil contract rose 0.4%. It is worth noting that Indian importers purchased palm oil from Colombia and Guatemala for the first time, as South American suppliers sold off excess inventories at steep discounts. This development may reshape global oil and fat trade flows, but it has not significantly squeezed Malaysia's export share in the short term.

Technical aspects and financial sentiment are more neutral

Well-known institutional technical analysts pointed out that palm oil is currently in a range oscillation pattern of 4475-4542 ringgit/ton, and breaking through the boundary of the range may clarify the follow-up direction. Both DIF and DEA in the MACD indicator are positive but the difference has narrowed, suggesting that although the upward momentum exists, it needs to be vigilant for short-term corrections.

The potential impact of the policy needs to be continuously tracked

The market is watching the progress of the ruling on the application of biofuel blending exemption for small US refineries. If the policy is relaxed, it may indirectly affect the demand for vegetable oil biofuels, but the scope of the current resolution is limited, and the direct impact on the global palm oil supply and demand structure has not yet been seen.

Institutional Perspective Integration

Pelindung Bestari: Paramalingam Supramaniam made it clear that "production only increased slightly by 2% -3% in August, and export resilience will continue until September", emphasizing fundamental support.

Technical analysis perspective: Well-known institutional analysts believe that the price range is volatile and neutral, and the direction will be established after breaking through the range.

Outlook

The current market is intertwined with long and short factors: low production growth and strong exports provide bottom support for prices, while external oil market fluctuations and changes in trade flows may bring short-term disturbances. If the follow-up production data continues to be lower than expected, prices may further test upward resistance, but need to be vigilant against the risk of technical correction. In the long run, the marginal tightening trend of the supply and demand balance has not changed, but policy and global macroeconomic trends need to be included in the observation framework.