1.3600 and 1.3430: Pound short-term long and short two "gates"

On Monday (September 1), the pound quickly repaired last Friday's retracement, the pound/dollar returned to above 1.3500, and the North American session was once close to 1.3550; in the context of the overall pressure on the dollar, the exchange rate refocused on the possibility of a breakthrough in the 1.3600 line. Echoing this, the dollar index (DXY) continued to fall below 98.00, close to the low level in late July, risk appetite picked up slightly, and the pound gained momentum.

Fundamentals:

The US data is dense this week, and the labor market will be in the spotlight. During the week, the employment and wage sub-items are regarded by the market as the key to test the stickiness of inflation, while the expectation of "two interest rate cuts in the year" is still slowly heating up in the pricing, the front-end interest rate of the curve is falling, and the dollar is passively weakening as a denominated asset. In this external environment, the beta of the pound is amplified: with every downward pulse of the dollar, the pound is more inversely elastic against it.

In the UK, the market has formed a strong consensus on the Bank of England's policy interest rate unchanged on September 18, while the forward implied interest rate shows a moderate easing space of about 25 basis points until March 2026 - a slow pace and light intensity closer to the "data-oriented + patient observation" framework. The fiscal side still needs to be vigilant about the impact of the deficit path and financing needs on the term premium of British bonds; in addition, the British Parliament Finance Committee will meet with members of the Monetary Policy Committee this week, and more clues may be released about the timing of interest rate cuts and the details of quantitative tightening (QT). Any change in wording may affect the short-term fluctuations of the front-end curve and the pound.

At the data level, several high-frequency UK house prices released across the month: the monthly rate of the Nationwide house price index in August was -0.1%, indicating that the real estate momentum was still moderate; the number of mortgage approvals rose to 65.35K in July, showing a low level of repair; the M4 money supply was + 0.1% month-on-month during the same period, and the liquidity margin was compensated but limited. The above combination does not constitute a further pressure on inflation, and the weakening of the external dollar provides the dual support of "weak dollar + stable UK" for the pound.

Technical aspects:

The daily chart shows that the middle rail of the Bollinger Bands is 1.3430, the upper rail is 1.3639, and the lower rail is 1.3222; the latest price is located near 1.3540, running above the middle rail and approaching the upper rail. Since the high point of 1.3788, the width of the Bollinger Bands has converged significantly compared with the previous one, reflecting the contraction of volatility and the strengthening of the sideways trend; the center of gravity of the in-band oscillation has moved up from 1.34 to above 1.35, and the short-term bulls are dominant but lack unilateral diffusion.

In terms of the shape of the K-line chart, the recent multiple entities are short, and the upper and lower shadows are balanced, which more reflects the "repeated trial and error in the box" rather than the trend attack. In terms of momentum indicators, the MACD fast and slow lines are slightly bonded near the zero axis, the DIFF is slightly higher than the DEA, and the bar chart maintains a low red bar after turning from negative to positive, which belongs to the gentle upward trend of "golden fork passivation"; the relative strength index RSI (14) remains at 56.49 line, in the strong area of 50-60, still far from the overbought threshold of 70, leaving room for the bulls to continue to exert force.

At the structural level, 1.3500 constitutes the first psychological barrier and short-term support, and the middle rail 1.3430 is a more critical "dynamic support"; below, pay attention to 1.3400 and the lower Bollinger rail 1.3222 in turn. If it falls below, it may form a "resonance resistance" with the upper rail 1.3639 before the test. Once the daily line is effectively closed on it and the bandwidth is re-expanded, the pound is expected to attack the former high-density area of 3700-1.3788. Overall, it is currently a "upper rail test in the Bollinger Band extrusion", and the short-term bulls need to amplify the volume and volatility to complete the breakthrough confirmation of the trend level.

Outlook for the future market:

Short term (1-2 weeks):

The baseline scenario is "moving up the range and testing 1.3600-1.3640". As long as the daily line is stable above 1.3500 and the RSI remains above 50, technical funds will tend to go long near the middle rail and reduce their positions near the upper rail, forming a rhythm of "mean reversion + up-dip box"; if DXY continues to be below 98.00, the probability of the pound breaking 1.3600 will be further raised. Conversely, if the US employment report is significantly stronger than expected, causing DXY to return to above 98.00 and expand its gains rapidly, the pound may retract to test 1.3430, with 1.3222 on the lower edge of the Bollinger Band as the next line of defense.

Midline (January-March):

The driving force lies in the relative paths of the two central banks. The Bank of England tends to be "stable + slow easing", while if the Federal Reserve enters the stage of "low-speed interest rate cuts + reserve options", the median line of interest rate differentials on the pound will be limited. Superimposed on the fundamentals of the UK side are gently repaired, and the pound/dollar is more likely to get out of the slope of "slow bull and slow rise". But there are two types of inflection points to be wary of: first, once US inflation is stuck again and interest rate cuts are expected to be delayed, the cyclical rebound of the dollar will raise the risk of the pound's retracement; second, if there is a "mismatch" of high financing costs and weakening growth prospects at the same time on the UK fiscal side, the upward curve term premium will suppress the