Australia Exchange Forex: Focusing on the meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, seeking more signals on the direction of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy

On July 17, this week's G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting was held, focusing on relevant speeches to seek more signals on the direction of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. The Reserve Bank of Australia announced the July monetary policy meeting notes. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the new chairperson of the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy bias hints. In addition, pay attention to the press conference held by the State Council Information Office on the operation of the national economy.

Beijing time on Monday (July 17), this week's G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting, focusing on relevant speeches, in order to seek more signals on the direction of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced the July monetary policy meeting notes, need to pay attention to whether the new chairperson of the Reserve Bank of Australia policy bias hints, in addition, pay attention to the new office on the operation of the national economy held a press conference.

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Russia's share of India's oil imports exceeds 40%.

According to data from India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Russia's share of India's oil import structure exceeded 40% for the first time in May, and exceeded the sum of the next three suppliers, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. In May this year, Russia accounted for 40.4% of India's total oil imports. The next three countries together accounted for 36%, including Iraq 18%, Saudi Arabia 12%, and the United Arab Emirates 6%. In addition, 4% of India's oil imports come from the United States and 3% from Kuwait.

Media: Biden leads the way in fundraising for US presidential candidates

US President Joe Biden's re-election campaign raised $72 million in the second quarter, ahead of all its rivals, including his predecessor Donald Trump, according to results from the second quarter of 2023, the Hill reported. The report said: President Biden's fundraising numbers were more than double those of former President Trump and other candidates, making him a success in the second quarter. Biden also had $77 million in cash on hand, the campaign said, "the most cash accumulated by Democrats of any comparable period in history."

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: Economic uncertainty remains high

Kazuo Ueda, governor of the Bank of Japan, said the US and global economies were not slowing as thought, but uncertainty remained high. The future trajectory of US inflation will be a focus of market attention. At the same time, he said the functioning of the bond market had not changed much from the last monetary policy meeting in June; compared with earlier, the distortion of the yield curve had improved significantly.

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki: G7 has confirmed that it will continue to freeze Russian assets

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki told reporters after a meeting of G7 finance ministers in India that the G7 had confirmed it would continue to freeze Russian assets and confirmed its firm support for Ukraine. Shunichi Suzuki said it was important to use existing funds and mobilize private capital for multilateral development banks. G7 countries welcomed the OECD's international tax package; the meeting did notforeign exchange marketHave a discussion.

National Bureau of Statistics: In June, the sales prices of new commercial housing in various cities were flat or slightly lower month-on-month, and second-hand housing fell month-on-month

From the perspective of new commercial housing, in June, the sales price of new commercial housing in first-tier cities rose by 0.1% month-on-month to flat, of which Beijing and Shanghai rose by 0.1% and 0.4% month-on-month respectively, and Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell by 0.1% and 0.3% month-on-month respectively; the sales price of new commercial housing in second-tier cities rose by 0.2% month-on-month to flat; the sales price of new commercial housing in third-tier cities fell by 0.1% month-on-month from flat last month. From the perspective of second-hand housing, in June, the sales price of second-hand housing in first-tier cities fell by 0.7% month-on-month, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the sales price of second-hand housing in second- and third-tier cities fell by 0.4% month-on-month, an increase of 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points respectively from the previous month.

BlackRock: The United States is not necessarily headed for a recession, and the economy is far more stable than some people think

BlackRock Chief Investment Officer Rick Rieder said in an interview that there is no need for a country like the United States to experience an economic downturn, and I don't think today's exaggeration of the recession phenomenon is justified, unless the system takes a huge hit, when you have a consumer and service-oriented economy, it is more stable than people think. Regarding inflation, Rieder said that the United States is currently close to the target level, and we will see inflation continue to decline. And when it comes to the future path of interest rates, he expects the Federal Reserve to still try to raise interest rates again, possibly in November. But there are still doubts about whether to raise interest rates more now, and frankly, these interest rates are already very restrictive.

Precious metal

Gold prices retreated on Friday, but posted their biggest weekly gain since April, after signs of slowing U.S. inflation raised expectations that the Federal Reserve would pause interest rate hikes later this month.

Gold prices hit their highest level since June 16 earlier this week after data showed U.S. consumer prices rose at their slowest year-on-year pace in more than two years, prompting bets that the Federal Reserve could soon end its rate-hiking cycle.

Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said: "Expectations for further rate hikes have dipped slightly as inflation has come down, which has helped gold this week. But with US Treasury yields rising, gold prices fell today. Prices will be in range in the near term. If the Fed starts saying we don't need further rate hikes, we will see further gains in gold."

The rise in US benchmark Treasury yields has made non-yielding gold less attractive to investors, but the dollar is on track for its biggest weekly decline since November, limiting the decline in gold prices.

Silver rose 0.4% to $24.95 an ounce, its best week since mid-March. Platinum rose 0.1% to $974.03; palladium fell 1.4% to $1,277.18, but both rose for a second straight week.

crude oil

Oil prices fell more than $1 a barrel on Friday as oil traders took profits after a strong rally as the dollar strengthened and benchmark crude contracts posted their third consecutive weekly gain.

John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital, said: "This seems to be just some profit taking, with some demand concerns back in the spotlight as the dollar rebounds."

The dollar index rose after hitting a 15-month low as investors consolidated their positions ahead of the weekend. A stronger dollar has made crude oil more expensive for investors holding other currencies, reducing demand for oil.

However, Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at Bank of America Wealth Management, said the oil market could resume its upward trend next week as factors such as easing inflation, plans to replenish the U.S. strategic reserve, supply cuts, and supply disruptions could support the market.

Oil prices rose nearly 2 percent on a weekly basis after supply disruptions in Libya and Nigeria heightened fears that the market would tighten in the coming months.

Several oil fields in Libya were closed on Thursday after a local tribe protested the kidnapping of a former minister. Separately, Shell suspended the loading of Nigerian crude oil from Fekados (Nigeria) due to a possible spill at an end point.

PVM analyst John Evans said the loss from the Libyan crude oil supply disruption is estimated at 370,000 barrels per day, while the loss from the Nigerian crude oil supply disruption is estimated at 225,000 barrels per day.

Commerzbank analysts added that Russian oil exports have also fallen sharply, and if the trend continues next week, it could push prices further higher as Russian oil exports are set to fall by 500,000 barrels per day in August.

foreign exchange

The dollar rallied on Friday after falling sharply over the past few days as investors consolidated losses ahead of the weekend, but the greenback remained tilted to the downside as the Federal Reserve was seen as nearing the end of its rate hike cycle amid softening inflation. The dollar still recorded its biggest weekly decline against a basket of six major currencies since November. The dollar index rose 0.2 percent to 99.923, earlier touching a 15-month low of 99.574. The index is down 2.3 percent for the week.

U.S. producer and consumer inflation data for June showed price pressures eased, adding to the dollar's decline this week. Thursday's data showed U.S. producer prices barely rose in June, the smallest annual increase in nearly three years, and Wednesday's report showed consumer prices rose only modestly in June.

Helen Given, a currency trader at Monex USA, said: "Today's dollar rally appears to be mostly a correction and the market may have overreacted to Wednesday's CPI data. Fed governor Paul Waller's comments reinforce the view that the Fed is still seeking to raise interest rates twice, even if the market is not fully convinced."

Federal Reserve Governor Paul Waller said he is not ready to lift the alarm on U.S. inflation, and he is leaning towards further rate hikes this year.

CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that the market still sees a 95% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points this month, but will not raise rates again for the rest of the year.

According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, investors have been betting on a dollar turnaround for months, with short positions more than doubling in the month to July 7 but still well below 2021 levels.

The euro hit a 16-month high of $1.1245 in Asia against the weaker dollar EUR = EBS, before remaining flat at $1.1229.

The dollar rose 0.4 per cent to SFr0.8621 from an eight-year low of SFr0.8568, on track for its biggest weekly percentage fall against the Swiss franc since December.

The dollar rose 0.5 percent to 138.805 against the yen, but was on track for its worst weekly performance since January.

"In the short term, we may see a slight strengthening in the dollar, but it remains to be seen whether the Fed can convince traders on July 26 [the Fed meeting date] that it will raise rates twice more, not once," said Mr. Given at Monex.

The Swedish krona fell 0.5 per cent to 10.2395 against the dollar, off a two-month high hit on Thursday on data showing consumer inflation had slowed more slowly than expected. The krona was still on track for its biggest weekly gain since March 2009, rising 5.2 per cent on a weekly basis.

In other currencies, the Australian dollar fell 0.8% to $0.6837 against the dollar after Michele Bullock was appointed as the head of the Reserve Bank of Australia on Friday, becoming the first woman to chair the Reserve Bank of Australia following a comprehensive restructuring.