Ausforex is approaching non-agricultural, the market remains vigilant, the US dollar index continues to pull back, the price of gold hovers at a low level, and the US bond yield continues to rise

On Thursday (Oct 5), although Friday's data may trigger fresh declines, U.S. stocks and bonds have shrugged off their worst slumps of the week. The latest data showed the labor market remained strong, weekly jobless claims remained near historic lows, and U.S. stock market benchmarks closed lower on Thursday. The S & P 500 Index has been hovering above a key support level that technical analysts have warned could lead to a sharper decline if broken.

On Thursday (October 5), while Friday's data could trigger a fresh decline, U.S. stocks and bonds have shrugged off their worst plunge of the week.

The latest data showed the labor market remained strong, weekly jobless claims remained near historic lows, and U.S. stock market benchmarks closed lower on Thursday. The S & P 500 Index has been hovering above a key support level that technical analysts warned could lead to a deeper decline. With the indicator already down about 8 percent from its July high, Friday's monthly nonfarm payrolls data being too healthy could push yields higher and send stocks lower.

Gold and silver prices softened slightly in U.S. midday trading on Thursday. Precious metals traders were cautious ahead of Friday's important U.S. jobs report. Gold last fell $3.50 in December to $1,831.10, while silver fell $0.201 in December to $20.945.

foreign exchange marketIn, after hitting an 11-month high earlier in the week, the dollar index fell 0.4% to 106.34. USD/JPY rose a dozen points to an intraday high of 149.12, but then slowly fell to 148.40. The euro took advantage of the dollar's weakness to gain for the second day in a row, hitting a high of 1.0551, and is currently trading slightly below that level. AUD/USD all retreated after rising in the Asian session, rising again in the North American session, but failed to fully reach the early high."Friday's jobs report is probably the most important of the year," said Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader and founder of The Sevens Report newsletter. "If the report is too hot and the US 10-year bond yield is close to 5 per cent, then we could easily see the S & P 500 index fall below its 200-day moving average, at which point the decline in equities will accelerate."

The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.7 per cent after hitting a 16-year high of about 4.88 per cent this week. The yield on the 30-year note, which had recently risen to 5 per cent, was close to 4.9 per cent in trading on Thursday. Investors have focused on the rising cost of US debt, viewing 5 per cent as a possible target for long-term US government bonds. Now, however, some on Wall Street say there is also a 6 per cent chance.

With the U.S. base rate at a 22-year high, a Fed spokeswoman emphasized the message of a prolonged period of higher rates and said the data needed to be watched before the November meeting to determine the central bank's next move. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, who does not have a vote this year, said the market is returning to the normal rates of previous years. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who is also a non-voting member, said the central bank is likely to keep rates steady if employment and prices show signs of slowing.

Chris Gaffney, president of global markets at EverBank, said: "The market is finally starting to deal with the rise in long-term rates, and I think we're seeing more of that reflected in the market. In the past, the Fed always seemed to adjust to market conditions, but this time I think the market has to adjust to Fed policy adjustments."

The number of people filing for unemployment benefits rose slightly last week compared with the previous week, according to the Labor Department. The number of people filing for unemployment benefits rose to 207,000 in the week ended Sept. 30. Earlier in the week, a surprise gain in jobs in August triggered a sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, which paused slightly after private sector jobs data showed U.S. companies added the fewest jobs last month since early 2021.

While markets have stabilised from the recent slump, investor sentiment remains fragile. Investors are eagerly watching whether Friday's labour data solidifies bets that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate rises in November, with swaps pricing in a one-in-four chance of a rate rise next month.

Kenneth Broux, strategist at Socie ́ te ́ Ge ́ ne ́ rale (601166), said: "Friday's non-farm payrolls data and next week's inflation data will determine whether the 10-year yield rises to 5 per cent or falls to 4.5 per cent." He added that the higher-than-expected jobs data could trigger "another wave of dollar purchases and bond sales".

In the monthly jobs report, economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted that the U.S. economy added 170,000 jobs in September, slightly lower than the previous month.

Despite signs of calm in the markets, the strategists' report highlights deep concerns about the long-term economic damage caused by a prolonged period of higher interest rates. Barclays analysts wrote in a note that global bonds are destined to continue falling unless a sustained slump in equity markets reinvigorates the attractiveness of fixed income assets. "There is no fixed, specific level of interest rates that can guarantee triggering a sustained rally in the bond market," the analysts, led by Ajay Rajadhyaksha, said. "Instead, the performance of the bond market could be influenced by a number of factors. The only scenario that could lead to a substantial rally in the bond market is if risky assets fall significantly in the coming weeks, investors may seek refuge and move money into relatively safe assets such as bonds, thereby driving the bond market up."

Brent oil prices fell about 2 percent on Thursday, extending a sharp drop of nearly 6 percent the previous day, as concerns about fuel demand outweighed the impact of OPEC +'s decision to keep oil production cuts unchanged. Brent crude futures closed down $1.74, or 2.03 percent, to settle at $84.07; U.S. crude futures closed down $1.91, or 2.3 percent, at $82.31.

Friday trading day focus and weather vane:

① 13:45 Switzerland September seasonally adjusted unemployment rate

② 14:00 UK September Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index monthly rate

③ 14:45 France's August trade balance

④ 20:30 Canada's employment in September, the US unemployment rate in September, and the US non-farm payrolls after the September quarterly adjustment

⑤ 24:00 Federal Reserve Governor Waller delivers a speech

The next day at 01:00, the total number of oil rigs in the week from the United States to October 6

Analysis of major currency trends:

EUR: EUR/USD rose, closing at 1.0546, up 0.41%. Technically, the preliminary resistance to the upside of the exchange rate is at 1.0540, further resistance is at 1.0576, and key resistance is at 1.0621; the preliminary support to the downside of the exchange rate is at 1.0458, further support is at 1.0414, and more critical support is at 1.0377.

GBP: GBP/USD rose, closing at 1.211, up 0.48%. Technically, the preliminary resistance to the upside of the exchange rate is at 1.2189, further resistance is at 1.2253, and key resistance is at 1.2329; the preliminary support to the downside of the exchange rate is at 1.2048, further support is at 1.1972, and more critical support is at 1.1908.

JPY: USD/JPY fell, closing at 148.512, down 0.41%. Technically, the preliminary resistance to the upside of the exchange rate is at 149.319, the further resistance is at 149.614, and the key resistance is at 149.909; the preliminary support to the downside of the exchange rate is at 148.729, the further support is at 148.434, and the more critical support is at 148.139.