Australia Exchange's official website: Slowing U.S. inflation pushes up oil prices by 2%, but risks remain from global oversupply and trade uncertainty

US crude oil posted its biggest one-day gain in two weeks yesterday, a move widely seen as driven by the latest US inflation data and a pick-up in global risk assets.

The latest data from the United States showed that the consumer price index (CPI) rose at its slowest pace in four months in February, easing concerns that the Federal Reserve may continue to tighten monetary policy, which in turn boosted risk assets, including crude oil markets.

"Crude oil prices have benefited from the overall recovery in risk appetite. However, slowing global economic growth and uncertainty over trade tariffs continue to cloud the market outlook." - Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets Pte

Despite the benefits of demand data,Aohui official websiteThe market still needs to pay attention to the pressure on the supply side. According to the latest report of OPEC +, the overall output of the organization rose in February, with Kazakhstan's output further exceeding the quota.

However, the government has reached an agreement with international oil companies to cut production to contain the surplus.

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U.S. crude inventories have also been rising in a row. Official data showed that U.S. commercial crude inventories rose by 1.40 million barrels last week, although the increase was lower than the market expected, but inventory pressure remained.

In addition, crude oil inventories in the Cushing, Oklahoma area fell by 1.20 million barrels for the first time in five weeks, which could mean a local supply tightening.

Markets are also waiting for the International Energy Agency's forthcoming monthly report to further assess global oil supply and demand after the US Energy Information Administration cut its forecast for a global oil glut, which could support confidence.

In terms of market structure, the recent futures spread for Brent crude oil shows that the market's expectation of tighter supply has strengthened. Data show that the premium of Brent crude oil over the four-month contract has widened to $1.42/barrel in recent months, up from $1.04/barrel in the previous month.

This "backwardation" structure usually indicates a tight market, which helps keep oil prices strong.

However, market participants still need to pay attention to the uncertainty caused by the Trump administration's trade policy. Economists generally believe that the new round of tariffs could push up consumer prices, weaken economic growth and indirectly affect crude oil demand.

Editorial opinion:

The current crude oil market is supported by factors such as falling inflation in the United States and warming market sentiment in the short term, and prices have rebounded. But in the long run, supply-side pressures remain, OPEC + production increases, high US crude oil inventories, and the Trump administration's trade policy variables may exacerbate oil price volatility.

In the future, the market needs to focus on:

EA's latest monthly report assesses whether the global crude oil supply and demand balance is improving.

Is there any further OPEC + production cuts to control the oversupply?

The impact of U.S. trade policy on economic growth could determine the future trend of crude oil demand.