Economist Summerlin has confirmed his candidacy for Federal Reserve chairperson, backing a sharp interest rate cut

Economist Marc Sumerlin, one of nearly a dozen candidates for Fed chair, said Thursday that he is interested in the job and believes a significant rate cut would be appropriate. Sumerlin, who served as a senior economist under President Bush, said in the media that lowering the Fed's key interest rate now is a simple decision. The current yield structure, the weakness of the labor market, and the stable level of inflation "tell us that we can do a 50 basis point rate cut... it won't cause any disruption, and it's almost a no-brainer decision for me," he said.

Fed policymakers are increasingly concerned about the cooling trend in the labor market, and the August 2025 jobs data suggest that market momentum is weakening. Fed watchers are debating whether the Fed will choose a larger-than-expected 50 basis point rate cut at its September meeting, rather than the more widely expected 25 basis point cut.

Another potential chair candidate, current Fed governor Christopher Waller, also said the policy focus had shifted to jobs, saying "the balance of risk has shifted to the jobs side of our dual mandate," which could justify a more aggressive rate cut.

In the race to succeed current Chairperson Jerome Powell (whose term ends in May 2026), Summerlin's stance on interest rates is at least in direction with President Trump. Trump has repeatedly urged the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy, advocating a rate cut of up to 3 percentage points, but the FOMC (FOMC) led by Powell has kept the base rate unchanged since the last rate cut in December 2024. Reuters reported that Trump continued to press Powell to cut interest rates in 2025, continuing his criticism when he promoted Powell to chairperson in his first term.

Regarding the nomination contest, Mr. Summerlin, now managing partner of Evenflow Macro, confirmed last week that he received a call from the White House. He mentioned that he was close friends with Scott Bescent, Treasury secretary, who is leading the search for the next Fed chairperson. Mr. Summerlin said the two had "discussed monetary policy every week for the past 12 years".

Reuters confirmed that Mr. Bescent is leading a broad search for Mr. Powell's successor, with Mr. Summerlin included in the list of candidates, which includes James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, Kevin Walsh, a former Fed governor, and Christopher Waller, the current Fed governor. The Wall Street Journal initially reported that the list of candidates was about 10, and Mr. Trump later narrowed it to four, but multiple sources confirmed that Mr. Summerlin was still on the list.

"I got a call last Wednesday saying there would be a list and I would be on it. That's all I know at the moment," Mr. Summerlin said. "I'm waiting for further guidance on how to proceed."

Mr. Summerlin said he was interested in a nomination if certain conditions were met. "I think if it's for the Fed chair position, it's a mission that's so important to the world that you have to be willing to take on," he said. "I've never met the president himself. It depends on whether we can agree."

Summerlin emphasized the importance of Fed independence, a principle that has been called into question by Trump's public criticism of Powell and other policymakers, who he called "a loser" and "stupid" and criticized the FOMC for being too complacent.

"You have to know that every day you walk into the office and you're doing your best for the American people and you're prepared to face criticism," Mr. Summerlin said. "Ideally, you want to be consistent with all parties as you enter. Consistency is a two-way street, and that's going to be part of the process."

In addition to Summerlin, the other candidates include current Fed governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and former governor Kevin Walsh, among about half a dozen others. Hassett, Walsh, and Waller have all expressed support for lower interest rates, consistent with Trump's preference for a chair who supports monetary easing. However, Summerlin's recent monetary policy views have not been fully clear beyond supporting a 50-basis point rate cut.

The Federal Reserve's recent focus on labor market weakness, with unemployment rising to 4.3% in July 2025, supports the case for a rate cut, echoing Summerlin's comments.

As the Federal Reserve prepares for its September 2025 meeting, market expectations are turning to a possible rate cut, with some traders betting on a 50 basis point cut on labor market concerns. However, the Fed's December 2024 forecast of just two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2025 showed a more cautious outlook that could make Summerlin's aggressive stance a challenge as chair.