News and Information

  The risk of a US recession is rising, investment chiefs at two of the world's largest asset managers have warned, despite the belief among US government officials and a growing number of investors that the Federal Reserve's rate rise will not do significant damage to the economy. Top fund managers at BlackRock and Orient said that while the US economy is resilient in the face of the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary tightening, "cracks" are emerging, particularly in the labour market. "The chances of us falling into a recession are very high...

  The People's Bank of China authorized the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center to announce that on September 14, 2023, the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1874 yuan for 1 US dollar, 7.7611 yuan for 1 euro, 4.9174 yuan for 100 yen, 0.91807 yuan for 1 Hong Kong dollar, 9.0323 yuan for 1 pound, 4.6519 yuan for 1 Australian dollar, and 4.6519 yuan for 1 New Zealand dollar.

  From a technical point of view, the US index rose below 104.95 on Tuesday and fell above 104.40, which means that the dollar may continue to decline after its short-term rise. If the US index rises below 104.95 today, the target for the future decline will point to between 104.45--104.20. Today, the short-term resistance of the US index is at 104.70-104.75, and the short-term important resistance is at 104.90-1...

  As the US Treasury issues a large number of short-term notes in the market, investors are scrambling to buy US Treasuries. In the past three months, as the US federal budget deficit has surged, newly issued treasury securities of more than $1 trillion have been snapped up. As its yield has soared to more than 5%, more and more small investors have flooded the market. According to foreign media reports, in the weekly auction in mid-August, the so-called non-competitive bidders, that is, those who do not submit competitive bids,...

  The bond market has just sent a signal that stocks will hit new highs for 2023 before the end of the year, according to a report released Tuesday by Bank of America (BofA). The bank highlighted that the option-adjusted spread (OAS) on the average Bloomberg U.S. corporate high-yield bond hit a new low since the start of the year earlier this month, meaning bond investors are increasingly willing to buy risky bonds. This is a leading indicator for stocks, as bond investors are typically market...

  On Tuesday, a source with direct knowledge of the discussions said the European Central Bank expected to maintain its inflation forecast for the eurozone next year at more than 3 per cent, potentially providing support for a 10th straight rate rise on Thursday. The ECB begins its two-day meeting on Wednesday, with persistently high inflation and mounting recession fears likely to be putting policymakers in a "bind", with a 50-50 chance that it will pause or raise rates again by 25 basis points. The ECB issued...

  A report released by OPEC on Tuesday predicted a further sharp drop in oil supply over the next three months, with a supply gap of about 3.30 million barrels per day. If true, this could be the largest supply deficit since at least 2007, according to an analysis of OPEC data by foreign media. The OPEC report pointed out that so far this quarter, OPEC's 13 members have produced an average of 27.40 million barrels of oil per day, about 18% less than their projected demand...

  The People's Bank of China authorized the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center to announce that on September 13, 2023, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was 1 US dollar to 7.1894 yuan, 1 euro to 7.7919 yuan, 100 yen to 4.9356 yuan, 1 Hong Kong dollar to 0.91859 yuan, 1 pound to 9.0491 yuan, 1 Australian dollar to 4.6623 yuan, 1 New Zealand dollar to RMB...

  "Don't blame greedy corporations for the surge in U.S. inflation over the past few years." That's the conclusion of Federal Reserve economist Berardino Palazzo in a new study. Palazzo wrote in a Sept. 8 note that once the massive fiscal and monetary support provided to the economy is taken into account, "corporate profit margins are not unusually high in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic." Senator Elizabeth Palazzo, Democrat of Massachusetts...

  Hedge fund bearishness on the euro is at its highest level since the start of the year ahead of the European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting this week and the release of blockbuster economic data such as CPI and retail sales in the US. The latest data from the US CFTC shows that speculative traders held a net short position in the euro on 6,421 contracts last week, in stark contrast to the previous week's net long position. This week the European Central Bank will hold a monetary policy meeting. In addition,...

  Federal Reserve officials hinted ahead of this month's policy meeting that they may begin to slow down in the fight against inflation as the labor market softens and inflation falls back from epidemic-era highs. That could mean the Fed will most likely choose to pause rate hikes this month, but officials also cautioned that it may not mean the Fed has finished raising interest rates. Dallas Fed President Logan said, "At this stage, I believe we have to step by step, weighing the risks of too much inflation against...

  Even with a rally at the start of the week, the yen remains vulnerable to sharp swings, with key U.S. inflation data and a meeting between the two countries' central banks on interest rates serving as potential catalysts. U.S. CPI data released on Wednesday is expected to show CPI gains accelerated for the second straight month in August from a year earlier. If headline prices rise more than the consensus estimate of 3.6 percent, speculation of another Fed rate hike could boost the dollar and could send the yen to its lowest level since the start of the year. The yen fell...

  The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported on Monday that Americans' overall views on inflation changed slightly in August, although long-term inflation expectations showed signs of rising again. At the same time, households' perceptions of their current financial situation and their expectations for the future deteriorated sharply. They predict that prices such as rents, home prices and food will rise. The New York Fed said in its August survey of consumer sentiment that inflation expectations were relatively stable last month, with respondents expecting an inflation rate of 3.6 percent a year from now, up from 7 percent.

  The People's Bank of China authorized the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center to announce that on September 12, 2023, the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1986 yuan for 1 US dollar, 7.7952 yuan for 1 euro, 4.9573 yuan for 100 yen, 0.91894 yuan for 1 Hong Kong dollar, 9.0706 yuan for 1 pound, 4.6677 yuan for 1 Australian dollar, and 4.6677 yuan for 1 New Zealand dollar.

  The United Auto Workers (UAW) is in talks with three major automakers. The current contract expires on September 14 local time. When the clock strikes midnight and the negotiations have not made progress, the strike could bring higher inflation and significant economic losses. 10 days can cause $5.60 billion in losses. Anderson Economics Group, an economic consulting firm based in Michigan, said that just 10 days of work stoppages for General Motors, Ford Motor and Strantis could make the United States...