News and Information

  The US dollar index is set to record its 12th consecutive week of gains this week. The US index stood at the 107 mark at the beginning of the week for the first time since November last year, but the rally failed to continue, and began to fall from a 10-month high in the middle of the week. After the non-farm data on Friday, the US index soared in the short term and then fell back. Spot gold fell for 9 consecutive trading days, hitting a new seven-month low during the session, hitting a low of $1,810.51/ounce this week. After the non-farm data, gold prices showed a deep V reversal in the short term. US bond yields were all...

  Oil prices were one of the many wild swings Wall Street did not expect this week. Crude oil prices suffered their biggest one-day drop in more than a year on Wednesday after data showed weaker-than-expected demand. Oil prices continued to fall on Thursday on fears that slowing global economic growth would dent consumption, despite news that Saudi Arabia raised the price of its flagship crude for Asian customers for a fifth straight month. The recent rally in US benchmark crude prices, which briefly rose above $95 a barrel at the end of September, sparked a...

  While the dollar is on track for its longest one-day rally in a year, Kit Juckes, chief foreign exchange strategist at Socie ́ te ́ Ge ́ ne ́ rale in London, said the dollar could peak if the U.S. government shutdown lasts longer than a week or two. With Congress having been unable to reach a deal to avert a partial shutdown of the federal government on October 1, that would leave federal contractors from Musk's SpaceX to cleaning federal buildings on the hook for up to $1.90 billion a day.

  US equities are in a difficult time, according to DBG. Both good and bad news on economic data seem to be a hit. If there is any good news, at least the S & P 500's 200-day moving average (Tuesday's 4,195) is still supported. Initial US jobless claims fell to 201,000 on Thursday, an eight-month low, near the lowest level of the cycle, and with the Federal Reserve guiding the labour market to slow to control inflation...

  The People's Bank of China authorized the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center to announce that on September 28, 2023, the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1798 yuan for 1 US dollar, 7.5849 yuan for 1 euro, 4.8398 yuan for 100 yen, 0.91763 yuan for 1 Hong Kong dollar, 8.7667 yuan for 1 pound, 4.5934 yuan for 1 Australian dollar, and 4.5934 yuan for 1 New Zealand dollar.

  The recent surge in long-term interest rates to their highest level in 16 years has added to a growing list of headwinds that threaten to derail the US economy from a soft landing. Rising borrowing costs have put the nascent US housing market at risk and increased obstacles for companies seeking financing. It has also hit US equities, curtailing some of the wealth gains investors have enjoyed so far this year. The rise in interest rates - the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has risen by more than 100% since mid-May.

  Treasury yields continued to climb on Wednesday, with the base rate across the curve rising by 6 to 10 basis points. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 10 basis points to 4.64 percent, the highest since October 2007. A rally in U.S. crude oil futures is seen as exacerbating inflationary pressures, while bearish sentiment that the Federal Reserve needs to keep interest rates high for longer also fueled a broad correction in the market. ICE Bof, which tracks expected volatility in bonds...

  Dozens of blockbuster economic data affecting the Federal Reserve's November interest rate decision are likely to be extended indefinitely as the government shutdown deadline approaches. Nick Timiraos, a Wall Street Journal reporter known as the "New Fed News Agency", believes Fed officials are walking a tightrope between taming inflation and avoiding an unnecessarily severe slowdown. If the government shuts down for a long time, it means they may have to "blindfold...

  The copper market has seen an anomaly not seen in nearly 30 years, in what some see as another sign that the global economy may be in trouble. The continued decline in the spot price of copper has widened the spread between it and copper futures prices for delivery on the London Metal Exchange in three months to the widest level since 1994, sending the copper futures curve into an extreme premium. Futures premium is used by commodity futures traders to describe the higher futures price of a particular commodity than spot...

  The Russian government plans to continue reducing the discount of its flagship crude grade, Urals, to the Brent benchmark, Russian business media RBK reported on Monday, citing the draft budget for the Russian Federation for 2024-26. The discount is expected to be gradually reduced from the current $20 a barrel to $6 in 2026, the report said. Next year, the discount will be $15 a barrel, and in 2025 it is expected to be $10 a barrel. Since December last year, the European Union has imposed an embargo on Russian oil to...

  The People's Bank of China authorized the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center to announce that on September 27, 2023, the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1717 yuan for 1 US dollar, 7.6288 yuan for 1 euro, 4.8507 yuan for 100 yen, 0.91705 yuan for 1 Hong Kong dollar, 8.7738 yuan for 1 pound, 4.6246 yuan for 1 Australian dollar, and 4.6246 yuan for 1 New Zealand dollar.

  September 26 - Federal Reserve hawk Neel Kashkari said there will be another interest rate hike this year. The Federal Reserve last week expected the policy rate to be at least 5.1% by the end of 2024, but interest rate futures contracts reflected a drop to 4.65%. British media analysis said traders began to question Chairperson Powell's statement. Federal Reserve hawk Neel Kashkari said on Tuesday (September 26) that there will be another interest rate hike this year....

  DBG Forex warns that almost all crude oil shorts have been covered, and as buying slows, oil prices may reverse in the near future. The focus is starting to shift to the demand side, and a series of factors may prevent oil prices from continuing to rebound above $100. Investors continue to buy oil futures and options, with a focus on crude oil, but buying has slowed as almost all short positions have been covered and the market's bullish power is starting to look stretched. In the seven days to September 19, hedge funds...

  As Wall Street suffered a cross-asset sell-off last week, hedge funds ramped up their short bets on stocks, and a measure of hedge fund market positioning recorded its biggest drop since the March 2020 crash. After a 20% rally in U.S. stocks fueled by artificial intelligence excitement, enthusiasm for U.S. stocks from retail investors to rules-based systematic traders is fading. Fast money investors increased their bearish positions, according to Societe Generale Forex Prime Broker, leaving...

  In a note to clients on Monday, Marko Kolanovic, chief market strategist at JPMorgan Chase, warned that sectors such as retailers, carmakers and airlines would be hit hardest by cooling inflation after enjoying the benefits of higher prices over the past two years. "Overall, we think the trade-off between growth and policy will remain challenging through the end of the year," Mr. Kolanovic said, while reiterating concerns about the lag in rate rises...