News and Information

  U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said any intervention by Japan to prop up the yen was understandable if it was aimed at smoothing volatility, rather than at influencing the level of the exchange rate. "A lot depends on the details," Yellen said on Tuesday when asked if the US Treasury would understand if Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market to buy yen. "We usually communicate with them about these interventions"...

  At the end of 2022, many thought the dollar rally was over, including Mark Nash, a fund manager at Jupiter Asset Management. His bet on bonds paid off after the Federal Reserve's rate hike sent markets into turmoil, and like many other funds, Nash made a common bet that the dollar would fall as the Fed's tightening policy drew to a close. At the beginning of the year, this seemed to happen from time to time. However, in...

  U.S. stocks continued to slump in the late summer, but the resilience of the S & P 500, which has closed 100 consecutive days without a loss of more than 1.5 percent, has just hit a milestone not seen in five years. In the two months since its peak this year, the index has fallen more than 1 percent four times, but beyond that, the daily volatility has been as small as it has been since 2018. Part of that resilience comes from optimism that the economy has weathered...

  The S & P 500's rally has stalled since August, but despite the slowdown, the stock market does not look cheap at the moment. "It is almost impossible to be bullish on the S & P 500 in terms of market capitalisation-weighted valuations, with 19 of the 20 indicators we track indicating overvaluation," Jill Carey Hall, equity and quantitative analyst at Bank of America, wrote in a recent note to clients. "Our dividend discount model...

  Amid the government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said it would stop releasing data, including key figures on inflation and unemployment. The lack of key government data will make it difficult for investors and the Federal Reserve to interpret the U.S. economy. Now, the economic outlook remains uncertain: Inflation is likely to slow to the Fed's 2 percent target without a spike in unemployment, a so-called "soft landing," or a possible recession as the impact of the Fed's 11 rate hikes deepens. Labor...

  The period from 1980 to 2020 was a unique 40 years, characterized primarily by an expanding U.S. economy, but then, that pattern is likely to be replaced by a more regular boom-bust cycle and more frequent recessions, according to Deutsche Bank analysts. Given the pressure not to sacrifice economic growth, rising inflation in the coming decades will limit the room for central banks such as the Federal Reserve to operate, the analysts wrote in a long-term asset return study released Monday. At the same time, due to debt and G...

  The S & P 500's rally has stalled since August, but despite the slowdown, the stock market does not look cheap at the moment. "It is almost impossible to be bullish on the S & P 500 in terms of market capitalisation-weighted valuations, with 19 of the 20 indicators we track indicating overvaluation," Jill Carey Hall, equity and quantitative analyst at Bank of America, wrote in a recent note to clients. "Our dividend discount model...

  Global stagflation, China's new cycle, embracing a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. The macro environment will be turned upside down. In fact, the global market is no longer so concerned about the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle. For no other reason, everyone knows that this product will not be awesome for long. It took a year and a half for the federal base rate to go from 0% to around 6%. This is a major event that has not been seen in the past 40 years. That's it, the global economy has not yet exploded, and the rest of the world can still hold on. It can be considered...

  The People's Bank of China authorized the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center to announce that on September 19, 2023, the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1733 yuan for 1 US dollar, 7.7179 yuan for 1 euro, 4.8907 yuan for 100 yen, 0.91778 yuan for 1 Hong Kong dollar, 8.9390 yuan for 1 pound, 4.6557 yuan for 1 Australian dollar, and 4.6557 yuan for 1 New Zealand dollar.

  The People's Bank of China authorized the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center to announce that on September 18, 2023, the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1736 yuan for 1 US dollar, 7.6994 yuan for 1 euro, 4.8848 yuan for 100 yen, 0.91663 yuan for 1 Hong Kong dollar, 8.9471 yuan for 1 pound, 4.6523 yuan for 1 Australian dollar, and 4.6523 yuan for 1 New Zealand dollar.

  The People's Bank of China authorized the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center to announce that on September 15, 2023, the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1786 yuan for 1 US dollar, 7.6865 yuan for 1 euro, 4.9064 yuan for 100 yen, 0.91706 yuan for 1 Hong Kong dollar, 8.9732 yuan for 1 pound, 4.6536 yuan for 1 Australian dollar, and 4.6536 yuan for 1 New Zealand dollar.

  Javier Blas, one of the authors of "The World of Trading: Money, Power, and Commodity Traders," wrote that for Saudi Arabia, oil prices have reached $100 per barrel. Here's his take: In the world of oil, there is no such thing as a price. Because there are dozens of different measures, there is a price for each crude oil. Financial marekt focuses on two types of crude oil: Brent, which trades in London and New York, respectively...

  Federal Reserve researchers have warned in recent weeks that the Treasury market could be disrupted by the return of a popular hedge fund trading strategy that exacerbated the collapse of the world's largest bond market in 2020. Analysts said hedge fund short positions in some Treasury futures had recently hit record highs as part of so-called basis trading, which takes advantage of the premium the futures contract pays over the price of the underlying bond.

  Some large U.S. bond investors said Wednesday that they believe the Federal Reserve has reached its peak in raising interest rates despite a surge in energy prices in August that led to higher inflation. U.S. consumer prices posted their biggest increase in 14 months in August due to higher gasoline prices, although the annual increase in underlying inflation was the smallest in nearly two years, according to a report released Wednesday by the Labor Department. However, some bond fund managers believe that the 525 basis point increase already implemented by the Federal Reserve...

  September 14, DBG Forex brings you today's financial breakfast - U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar saw minor fluctuations on Wednesday (September 13), and mixed inflation reports reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate hikes, but this does not mean the end of the tightening cycle. U.S. Labor Department data showed that the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% month-on-month in August, slightly higher than the 0.2% increase expected by Dow Jones survey economists. The number...